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基于灰色关联分析法,将水稻不同生育期的冷害致灾因子值和产量结构性状、水稻不同生育期的产量结构性状和最终产量分别视作两个灰色系统,通过寻找各个灰色系统的灰映射关系,建立基于多层次灰色关联分析法的水稻低温冷害综合评估模型;并构建了单站各生育期、全生育期的冷害综合评估指数和区域评估指数,对东北水稻主产区27个站1961—2015年水稻冷害进行分生育期评估.结果表明:水稻冷害影响程度与各生育期产量丰歉能够较好对应.营养生长期、营养和生殖生长并进期、授粉结实期或满浆期受到冷害影响时,株穗数、平均穗粒数或千粒重有一定减少,空壳率有所增加.典型冷害年温度与单站或区域产量丰歉有较好的对应关系.
Based on the gray relational analysis method, the chilling hazard value and yield structure traits at different growth stages of rice, the yield structure traits and the final yield at different growth stages of rice were treated as two gray systems respectively. By looking for the gray mapping relationship of each gray system, , A comprehensive evaluation model of low temperature chilling injury in rice based on multi-level gray relational analysis was established. The comprehensive assessment index and regional evaluation index of chilling injury in each growth period and whole growth period of single station were built. 2015. The results showed that the degree of chilling damage and the yield apologies in each growth period could be well matched.The vegetative and reproductive growth and advancing stage, pollination stage or full stage stage were affected by chilling injury , The number of panicle spikes, the average number of grains per panicle or the 1000-grain weight decreased to a certain extent, while the shell percentage increased.A typical chilling injury temperature had a good correspondence with the single station or regional crop yield apologies.