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1、对某地区地震发生率完全无知的情况下,原文采用的无上限均匀分布是合乎逻辑的假设。任何其它分布,或给定某上限值,无疑包含了某些信息,但这就违背了完全无知的前提。给定上限的均匀分布会带来积分的困难,且最后结论相差极微。为此,我们认为原文的假设在逻辑上是合理的,在数学处理上是简便的。 2、从直觉上,或从最大似然率的观点,历史数据所提供的平均发生率应该是最可能的
1, It is a logical assumption to apply the upper-even distribution of the original text to the case of complete ignorance of the occurrence of earthquakes in a certain area. Any other distribution, or a given upper limit, undoubtedly contains some information, but this runs counter to the totally ignorant premise. The uniform distribution of a given upper limit will lead to difficulties in the integration, and the final conclusion is very different. For this reason, we think the original hypothesis is logically reasonable and easy to handle in mathematics. 2. Intuitively, or from the point of view of maximum likelihood, the average incidence provided by historical data should be the most probable