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CPI作为衡量居民家庭购买的消费商品和服务价格水平变动的指标,最近几月一直在3%的通胀红线上运行,11月CPI同比涨幅更是破5达到5.1%,本轮物价上涨对人们的生活方式和理财观念产生了显著影响。本文运用压力测试方法对我国2010年12月CPI走势进行建模分析,在此基础上对2010年12月CPI给出预测估计,结论认为我国12月CPI同比涨幅在4.3%左右,波动幅度主要依赖于政府对食品类、居住类价格的调控力度。
As a measure of the price level of consumer goods and services purchased by households, the CPI has been running at a 3% inflation red line in recent months. In November, the CPI rose 5% to 5.1% from a year earlier. Lifestyle and financial management concepts have had a significant impact. This paper uses the pressure test method to analyze the CPI trend of China in December 2010, and based on this, gives a forecast of the CPI in December 2010, concluding that the CPI in December rose by 4.3% from the same period of last year, and the fluctuation mainly depends on The government regulation of food, housing prices intensity.