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依据2001-2013年安徽省工业能源消耗及经济发展的相关数据,分析了碳排放量和强度的行业差异及演变,在此基础上,根据碳排放强度将31个行业划分为高、中和低三类碳排行业组,进而利用LMDI分解法定量测算了经济规模因素、能源效率因素、能源结构因素对不同行业组碳排放变动的贡献。结果显示:工业碳排放逐渐向能源生产、加工及重工业部门聚集,各行业间的碳排放差异不断扩大;经济规模因素是促进三类行业组碳排放增长的主要驱动因素,能源效率因素对碳排放增长起到较强的抑制作用,而能源结构因素对中、低行业组碳排放增长起到一定的抑制作用,但对高碳排行业组则起到促进作用。
Based on the data of industrial energy consumption and economic development in Anhui Province from 2001 to 2013, the paper analyzes the industry differences and evolution of carbon emissions and intensities. Based on this, 31 industries are classified into high, medium and low Three types of carbon industry group, and then use the LMDI decomposition method to quantify the economic scale factor, energy efficiency, energy structure factors on the changes in carbon emissions in different sectors of the contribution. The results show that: industrial carbon emissions gradually gathered in the energy production, processing and heavy industry sectors, and the carbon emission differences among industries continued to expand. The economic scale factor was the main driving factor to promote the carbon emission growth of the three types of industry groups. The carbon emission Growth played a strong inhibitory role, while the energy structure of carbon emissions in the medium and low industrial groups to play a certain role in the growth inhibition, but for the high carbon industry play a catalytic role.