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针对水资源脆弱性存在的随机性、模糊性和不确定性等特点,根据2011年乌鲁木齐市水资源供需水量,从自然脆弱、人为脆弱和承载脆弱三方面建立了水资源脆弱性评价指标体系,采用熵权法确定指标权重,构建了基于熵权法的模糊集对分析模型,并利用该模型对乌鲁木齐市水资源脆弱性进行评价。结果表明,乌鲁木齐市的8个市辖区县大部分处于中等脆弱级别以上,说明2011年乌鲁木齐市脆弱性级别较高,评价结果与实际情况相符。可见基于熵权法的模糊集对分析模型合理、可靠。
According to the randomness, fuzziness and uncertainty of water resources vulnerability, according to the water supply and demand of water resources in Urumqi in 2011, the index system of vulnerability assessment of water resources was set up from the aspects of natural vulnerability, man-made vulnerability and carrying vulnerability. Entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of indicators, and a fuzzy set pair analysis model based on entropy method is constructed. The model is used to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in Urumqi. The results show that most of the eight municipal districts and counties in Urumqi are above the medium level of vulnerability, indicating that the level of vulnerability in Urumqi in 2011 is higher and the evaluation results are in line with the actual situation. It can be seen that the fuzzy set pair analysis model based on entropy method is reasonable and reliable.