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通过构建脱钩理论的Tapio脱钩模型,研究新疆1990—2010年经济增长与CO_2排放的脱钩关系及程度,分析发展的时间演变趋势。借助IPAT模型及结构分解分析法(structure decomposition analysis,SDA),从碳排放总量及能源强度方面,对脱钩弹性影响因素进行分析。结果表明:1990—2010年,新疆经济增长与CO_2排放之间处于弱脱钩及扩张连接状态;各个脱钩状态下,影响CO_2排放的主要因素是规模效应;通过技术进步来促使CO_2排放强度下降是实现新疆经济增长与碳排放增长脱钩的重要手段,但不能将技术进步作为提高能源效率的唯一手段来实现节能。
Through the construction of the decoupling model of Tapio decoupling theory, this paper studies the decoupling relationship and degree of economic growth and CO 2 emission in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2010, and analyzes the evolution of time. Based on the IPAT model and structure decomposition analysis (SDA), the influencing factors of decoupling elasticity are analyzed from the aspects of total carbon emissions and energy intensity. The results show that between 1990 and 2010, Xinjiang’s economic growth and CO 2 emissions are weakly decoupled and dilatationally connected. Under the conditions of decoupling, the main factor influencing CO 2 emission is the scale effect. The declining intensity of CO 2 emission through technological progress is achieved Xinjiang’s economic growth and carbon emissions growth an important means of decoupling, but not as technological advances as the only means to improve energy efficiency to achieve energy conservation.