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估值效应作为外部均衡的金融调整渠道,随着金砖国家国际资产存量的扩大,发挥着越来越重要的作用。文章运用最新估值效应理论和方法,测算金砖国家1970~2015年间估值效应规模。通过面板向量自回归模型,实证分析金砖国家的估值效应内部结构,结果表明,金砖国家资产价格变动是估值效应变化的主要因素,汇率变动对估值效应变化作用不大。进一步对比分析发现,金砖国家国内资产价格上升和非状态依存型净负债规模扩大是导致其估值效应损失的主要原因。
As a channel of financial adjustment externally balanced, the valuation effect plays an increasingly important role as the stock of international assets in the BRICS expands. The article uses the latest valuation theory and method of valuation to estimate the scale of the valuation effect in the BRICS from 1970 to 2015. The empirical analysis of the internal structure of valuation effect in BRIC countries shows that the changes of BRIC asset prices are the main factors of the change of valuation effect. The change of exchange rate has little effect on the change of valuation effect. Further comparative analysis shows that the main reason for the loss of valuation effect is the increase of domestic asset prices in BRICS countries and the expansion of non-state-dependent net debt.