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本文采用2002年1月-2015年11月省级面板数据分析房地产市场、货币政策和产出之间的关系,通过面板VAR模型实证分析房地产市场的货币政策资产价格传导渠道的存在性,以及省级房地产市场价格波动与通货膨胀率、产出之间的相互关系。主要结论如下:第一,房地产市场的货币政策资产价格传导渠道是存在的,具体来说,房地产市场对产出的资产负债表渠道存在,且挤入效应大于挤出效应,我国区域房地产市场表现不同;第二,房地产市场对消费有一定的挤出效应,但挤出程度不高。研究结果启示:一是房地产市场的库存太大而且地区差异化较为明显,应针对不同区域不同情况,采取差异化的措施;二是观察房地产市场的波动对其他消费挤出效应程度的变化。
This paper uses provincial panel data from January 2002 to November 2015 to analyze the relationship between real estate market, monetary policy and output. The panel VAR model is used to empirically analyze the existence of monetary transmission channels of asset prices in the real estate market. Level real estate market price fluctuations and inflation, the relationship between output. The main conclusions are as follows: First, there is a channel for asset price transmission in monetary policy in the real estate market. Specifically, the real estate market has a balance sheet channel for outputs and the crowding-in effect is greater than the crowding-out effect. The real estate market in China Different; Second, the real estate market has some extrusion effect on consumption, but the extrusion is not high. The findings suggest that: First, the inventory of the real estate market is too large and the regional differentiation is more obvious. Different measures should be taken according to the different situations in different regions. Second, the changes in the effects of the real estate market fluctuations on other consumption crowding-out effects should be observed.