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运用1994～2008年我国乳业的相关数据,借鉴索洛模型的基本思想构建了包含技术进步因素的乳业增长模型,并运用生产函数和增长速度方程法,测度了1994～2008年14年间技术进步对我国乳业发展的贡献率。计算结果表明,我国乳业的发展进程中技术进步的平均贡献率为51.01%,超过了生产要素资本和劳动力的贡献率之合。作者进一步测算了入世前后各7年(即1994～2001,2001～2008两个时期)的我国乳业发展的技术进步贡献率,结果表明入世后技术进步贡献率下降,劳动投入贡献率明显上升,资本贡献率变化不大。最后,作者就计算结果进行了经济分析,认为在乳业发展进程中,技术进步起到了主要作用,同时生产要素在乳业产业周期中已经出现转移现象。
By using the data of China’s dairy industry from 1994 to 2008 and building on the basic thinking of Solow’s model, a dairy growth model including technological progress factors was constructed. Using the production function and growth rate equation method, the technical progress of 1994 to 2008 was measured Contribution rate of dairy industry in China. The calculation results show that the average contribution rate of technological progress in the development of China’s dairy industry is 51.01%, which exceeds the contribution rate of the capital and labor force of production factors. The author further estimates the contribution rate of technological progress to the development of China’s dairy industry during the seven years before and after the accession to the WTO (ie, from 1994 to 2001 and from 2001 to 2008). The results show that after the accession to the WTO, the contribution rate of technological progress declined, the contribution rate of labor input increased significantly, Contribution rate changed little. Finally, the author carried out an economic analysis of the calculation results and concluded that technological progress has played a major role in the dairy industry’s development process. At the same time, the production factors have shifted in the dairy industry cycle.