论文部分内容阅读
利用中国与17个主要贸易伙伴国1995～2008年的投入产出表和分行业双边进出口贸易数据,测算不同时期的双边生产分割程度。然后基于动态面板数据模型,综合分析了影响国际经济周期协同的决定性因素。研究发现,贸易在影响中国与主要贸易伙伴国的国际经济周期协同中存在两种不同方向的作用机制:以双边生产分割程度度量的互补品贸易对经济周期协同存在正向影响,而以双边贸易强度指标度量的替代品贸易对经济周期协同存在负向影响。同时研究还表明,双边金融整合程度对国际经济周期协同有正向影响,而产业结构相似性对国际经济周期协同的影响并不显著。
Using the input-output tables of China and 17 major trading partners from 1995 to 2008 and the data of bilateral trade between different industries, the degree of bilateral production segmentation in different periods is measured. Then based on the dynamic panel data model, a comprehensive analysis of the decisive factors affecting the synergy of the international economic cycle. The study finds that there are two different mechanisms for trade to influence the international economic cycle synergy between China and its major trading partners: the reciprocal trade measured by the degree of bilateral production has a positive impact on the synergy of the economic cycle, while the bilateral trade The trade in substitutes measured by the intensity index has a negative impact on the synergy of the economic cycles. At the same time, the research also shows that the degree of bilateral financial integration has a positive effect on the synergy of the international economic cycles, while the similarities of industrial structure have no significant effect on the synergy of international economic cycles.