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目前,学术界关于“省直管县”改革是否有促进经济社会发展的作用尚无定论,而现有的“扩权强县”和“财政直管”模式的弊端可能是造成这种争议的原因。2010年开始试点的新的省管县模式“全面直管”模式旨在纠正上述两种模式的弊端,但其政策效果究竟如何还未有研究揭示。基于河南省2003—2014年108个县(市)的数据,我们利用双重差分法(DID)和双重差分倾向匹配得分法(DID-PSM)首次对“全面直管”改革的效果进行了分析。研究发现,在控制了其他因素后,“全面直管”改革对试点地区的经济增长和民生状况均无积极影响,而且改革的负面效应比较明显:政策试点加重了试点地区的财政负担。这也是改革并未对经济发展和民生改善起到促进作用的原因之一。基于计量方法的稳健性,本文的实证结论相较以往研究更为可靠。我们认为试点政策与现有政策、制度的冲突和摩擦损害了改革的效果,只有通过全面推进“全面直管”改革,理顺各方面的政策和制度,才能使改革的效果真正显现出来。在此基础上本文对进一步的改革提出了政策建议。
At present, there is no conclusion on the role of the reform of the “provincial direct counties” in promoting economic and social development in academia. However, the drawbacks of the current model of “expanding power over county” and “fiscal management” may be This is the reason for this controversy. The new province-wide county model piloted in 2010 aimed at correcting the shortcomings of the above two models, but how the policy effect has not been revealed. Based on the data of 108 counties (cities) in Henan Province from 2003 to 2014, we used DID and DID-PSM for the first time to evaluate the effect of the reform on “all-round direct investment” analysis. The study found that after controlling for other factors, the reform of “all-round direct reform” did not have a positive impact on the economic growth and people’s livelihood in the pilot areas. And the negative effect of the reform was obvious: the pilot policy aggravated the financial burden on pilot areas. This is one of the reasons why the reform has not played a catalytic role in economic development and people’s livelihood improvement. Based on the robustness of measurement methods, the empirical conclusions in this paper are more reliable than previous studies. We think the conflicts and frictions between the pilot policies and the existing policies and systems have undermined the effectiveness of the reform. Only through fully promoting the reform of “comprehensive direct reform” and rationalizing policies and institutions in various fields will we be able to truly show the effects of the reforms . On this basis, the paper puts forward policy suggestions for further reform.