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目的:探讨利用流感监测信息测算流感不同级别预警线的简便方法。方法:根据营口市国家级监测点医院登记的流感样病例监测结果计算每周流感样病例数和流感样病例占门诊患者总数的百分比变化规律,并求其平均值、标准差、99%可信区间、标准误等。结果:2005年第44周至2009年第25周,营口市监测点医院报告流感样病例平均每周121例,流感样病例占门诊总病例数的平均百分比为2.3653%,二者均可视为营口市流感流行的常年基线;二者的99%可信区间上限分别为289例和5.9156%,可作为营口市流感流行的Ⅰ级预警线及测算其他级别预警线的底线;当上述指标分别超出其20%、40%、60%、80%时,可分别定为本地的Ⅱ级、Ⅲ级、Ⅳ级、Ⅴ级流感流行预警线,提示当地进入不同级别的流感流行状态。敏感指示人群可确定为0～14岁儿童(占77%)。结论:利用流感监测信息可以较简便地测算出当地流感流行常年基线及不同级别预警线;敏感指示人群为0～14岁儿童。
Objective: To explore a simple and convenient method of using flu surveillance information to predict the different levels of the warning line of influenza. Methods: According to the surveillance results of influenza-like cases registered at the national-level monitoring hospitals in Yingkou, the percentage of flu-like cases and the percentage of outpatients with flu-like cases were calculated and the mean, standard deviation and 99% confidence were calculated Interval, standard error and so on. Results: From the 44th week of 2005 to the 25th week of 2009, the average number of flu-like cases reported by Yingkou Monitoring Point Hospital was 121 cases per week. The average percentage of flu-like cases in outpatient cases was 2.3653%, both of which could be regarded as Yingkou City of influenza epidemic perennial baseline; the upper limit of 99% confidence interval of the two were 289 cases and 5.9156% respectively, which can be used as the first-class pre-warning line of Yingkou flu epidemic and the bottom line of other warning lines; when the above indicators are beyond their 20%, 40%, 60% and 80% respectively, they can be respectively classified as local pre-warning lines for grade Ⅱ, Ⅲ, Ⅳ and Ⅴ flu epidemics, prompting the local to enter different levels of influenza epidemic status. Sensitive indicator of the population can be identified as 0 to 14-year-old children (77%). Conclusion: The use of influenza surveillance information can be relatively simple and easy to calculate the prevalence of the local popular baselines and different levels of pre-warning lines; sensitive indicator population for children aged 0 to 14 years.