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本文采用中国2000年第1季度至2008年第4季度的信贷数据,基于H-P滤波分析发现,信贷资金的分布与经济增长率的周期性波动存在明显的内在联系。运用CF带通滤波测算信贷变量与经济增长率之间的交叉相关系数和先行/滞后关系,得到的结论是:中长期贷款和建筑贷款的周期性波动提前于经济增长,工业贷款和商业贷款的周期性波动与经济增长率相对一致。对经济增长率的趋势及其波动成分进行稳健性检验,也证明了中长期贷款和建筑贷款具有更显著的影响。因此,宏观调控部门应积极引导信贷资金流向效应明显的领域。
Based on the H-P filter analysis, this paper uses the credit data from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2008 in China. It is found that the distribution of credit funds has obvious internal relations with the cyclical fluctuation of economic growth rate. Using CF band-pass filter to measure the cross-correlation coefficient and the lead / lag relationship between credit variables and economic growth rate, we conclude that the cyclical fluctuation of medium- and long-term loans and construction loans is ahead of economic growth, industrial loans and commercial loans Periodic fluctuations and economic growth are relatively consistent. A robust test of the trend of economic growth and its volatility also proved that medium and long-term loans and construction loans have a more significant impact. Therefore, the macro-control departments should actively guide the flow of credit funds to the obvious areas.