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[目的]探讨启东市1972~2011年结直肠癌发病变化趋势,为制定结直肠癌预防控制措施与策略提供依据。[方法]采用启东市1972~2011年癌症发病登记数据库,对结直肠癌发病率作性别、年龄、时间趋势分析,计算指标包括粗发病率、中国人口标化率(中标率)、世界人口标化率(世标率)、35~64岁截缩率、0~74岁累积率、累积风险率、变化百分比(PC)及年均变化百分比(APC)等。[结果]1972~2011年启东结直肠癌发病6035例(男性2926例,女性3109例),粗发率为13.43/10万,占全部癌症发病的6.50%,位居癌症发病第4位。中标率和世标率分别为6.20/10万和9.80/10万;35~64岁截缩发病率为14.36/10万;0~74岁累积发病率为1.16%;结直肠癌发病的累积风险为1.15%。40年间结直肠癌发病的粗率、中标率和世标率的变化百分比(PC)分别为373.63%、67.42%与88.38%,年均变化百分比(APC)分别为4.21%、1.38%、1.58%。各时期结直肠癌发病率显示55岁以上各年龄组发病率有显著的上升趋势。年龄—出生队列方法分析显示,45岁以后的各年龄组出生队列发病率有明显的上升趋势。40年中结肠癌、直肠癌的粗率分别为3.93/10万、9.49/10万,中标率分别为1.81/10万、4.39/10万,世标率分别为2.87/10万、6.94/10万。40年中直肠癌在结直肠癌的占比为70.72%,近期直肠癌的占比有所下降。[结论]启东40年来结直肠癌发病率有明显上升趋势,应加强结直肠癌的防控。
[Objective] To investigate the change trend of colorectal cancer in Qidong from 1972 to 2011, and provide evidence for the development of colorectal cancer prevention and control measures and strategies. [Methods] The incidence of colorectal cancer was analyzed by using the database of cancer incidence from 1972 to 2011 in Qidong. The gender, age and time of colorectal cancer were analyzed. The calculated indexes included crude incidence rate, Chinese population standardization rate (successful rate), world population standard (World standard rate), 35-64 years old shrinkage rate, 0-74 years old cumulative rate, cumulative risk rate, change percentage (PC) and average annual percentage change (APC). [Results] The incidence of colorectal cancer in Qidong from 1960 to 2011 was 6035 (2926 males and 3109 females), with a rate of 13.43 / 100 000, accounting for 6.50% of all cancers, ranking the 4th in cancer incidence. The winning rate and the world standard rate were 6.20 / 100,000 and 9.80 / 100,000 respectively; the incidence of truncation of 35-64 years old was 14.36 / 100000; the cumulative incidence of 0-74 years old was 1.16%; the cumulative risk of colorectal cancer Is 1.15%. The percent change of the crude rate, the successful rate and the world standard rate of the incidence of colorectal cancer in the past 40 years were 373.63%, 67.42% and 88.38%, respectively. The annual average percentage of change (APC) was 4.21%, 1.38% and 1.58% respectively. The incidence of colorectal cancer in each period showed a significant upward trend in the incidence of each age group over the age of 55. Age-birth cohort analysis showed that the incidence of birth cohorts in all age groups after the age of 45 had a significant upward trend. The crude rates of colon cancer and rectal cancer in 40 years were 3.93 / 100,000 and 9.49 / 100,000, respectively, and the winning rates were 1.81 / 100,000 and 4.39 / 100,000, respectively, with world standard rates of 2.87 / 100,000 and 6.94 / 100,000 respectively . Rectal cancer in 40 years accounted for 70.72% of colorectal cancer, the proportion of recent rectal cancer has declined. [Conclusion] The incidence of colorectal cancer in Qidong has a clear upward trend in the past 40 years, and the prevention and control of colorectal cancer should be strengthened.