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目前,有两种特别有趣的说法:一种是2013年春节之后房价将暴涨,理由是2011年以来土地供应不足,导致商品房供应可能断档;另一种说法是,如果到2020年收入倍增,房价恐怕至少也要翻番了。那么2013年中国房价又会如何运行呢?笔者的估计是:销售面积可能创十年新高,但销售价格大致平稳;房地产行业总体将呈现销售好于投资,一、二线城市好于三、四线城市,住宅好于非住宅,龙头开发企业好于小开发商的特点。理由如下:第一,巨大的库存压力下价格难涨。从绝对库存来看,估计到2012年年底,房屋在建面积可能超过56亿平米,扣除保障房和单位自建,商品房在建面积可能超过40亿平米,足够销售4年;从相对库存来看,2012年全年,房屋新开工约有16亿平米,但销售不足10亿平米,
At present, there are two particularly interesting statements: one is that house prices will skyrocket after the Spring Festival in 2013 on the grounds that the shortage of land supply since 2011 has led to possible stalls in commercial housing supply. Another way is that if the revenue is doubled by 2020, I’m afraid at least double it. So how will China’s housing prices run in 2013? The author’s estimate is: the sales area may hit a 10-year high, but the sales price is generally stable; the overall real estate industry will show sales are better than the investment, the first and second tier cities are better than the third and fourth lines Cities, residential better than non-residential, leading developers better than the characteristics of small developers. The reasons are as follows: First, prices are hard to rise under huge inventory pressure. From the absolute inventory point of view, it is estimated that by the end of 2012, housing under construction may exceed 5.6 billion square meters, net of social security housing and self-built units, commercial housing under construction may exceed 4 billion square meters in area, enough sales for 4 years; from the relative inventory In 2012, there were about 1.6 billion square meters of newly started housing projects, but the sales volume was less than 1 billion square meters.