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近几年全球自然灾害频发,特别是地震等地质灾害,不仅破坏力强,且常常引发严重的次生灾害。四川省是我国著名的地质灾害多发区,尤其2008年的“5.12”大地震及此后频发的崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等次生灾害,给环境和人民生命财产带来巨大伤害,也使其境内的5项世界遗产遭到不同程度的破坏。根据四川省地质灾害发生时间集中、连锁反应大、成灾模式清楚的特点,依托地学原理,在前人的研究基础上采用逻辑回归模型,定量分析灾害发生频率,并建议采用模糊综合评价法对遗产地的潜在威胁进行对比分析。此外,根据震后灾害的特点和遗产保护及修复的经验,提出遗产地管理的几点建议,试图为地质灾害多发区遗产地保护和管理提供理论和实践依据。
In recent years, frequent global natural disasters, especially earthquakes and other geological disasters, not only destructive, and often lead to serious secondary disasters. Sichuan Province is one of the most famous geological disasters in our country. In particular, the “5.12” earthquake in 2008 and the subsequent secondary disasters such as landslides, landslides and debris flows have caused great harm to the environment and people’s lives and property. Five of its world heritage sites have been damaged to varying degrees. According to the characteristics of concentrated occurrence of serious geological hazards in Sichuan Province, large chain reaction and clear pattern of disaster, relying on the principle of geography, based on the previous studies, a logistic regression model was used to quantitatively analyze the frequency of disasters and proposed fuzzy comprehensive evaluation A comparative analysis of the potential threats to the heritage site. In addition, according to the characteristics of post-earthquake disasters and the experience of heritage protection and restoration, some suggestions on the management of heritage sites are put forward to provide theoretical and practical basis for the protection and management of heritage sites in geological disasters-prone areas.