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对中国1990-2012年货币政策在地区经济增长中的作用进行了多种测度和综合比较分析。σ收敛分析表明,20世纪90年代后地区差距呈扩大之势,但2004-2012年间略有下降。赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数和泰尔指数表明,1993-2004年差距扩大主要是发达地区导致;2004-2012年差距缩小主要是不发达地区发展所致。这一转变可能和制造业转移有关。β收敛分析验证了σ收敛分析的稳健性,揭示了地区经济“发散—平稳—再收敛”的过程符合“倒U型假说”。修正的单位根分析揭示了31个省级地区经济增长的六种类型及运动特征。各地区对预期和未预期货币的响应呈现为四种类型;同一类型的各地区往往在地理和生产结构方面有共性。综合比较显示,应关注产业结构及其变迁对货币政策效应的影响。
Conducted a variety of measurements and a comprehensive comparative analysis of the role of China’s monetary policy in regional economic growth during the period of 1990-2012. The σ convergence analysis shows that the regional disparity has been widening since the 1990s but dropped slightly between 2004 and 2012. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index and Theil Index show that the widening of the gap between 1993 and 2004 was mainly caused by the developed regions. The narrowing of the gap between 2004 and 2012 was mainly due to the development of underdeveloped areas. This shift may be related to manufacturing shift. β convergence analysis verifies the robustness of σ convergence analysis and reveals that the process of regional economy “divergence - smoothness - reconvergence ” conforms to “inverted U-shaped hypothesis ”. The modified unit root analysis reveals six types of economic growth and sports characteristics in 31 provincial regions. The responses of regions to expected and unforeseen currencies are presented in four categories; regions of the same type often have commonalities in geography and production structures. A comprehensive comparison shows that the effects of industrial structure and its changes on the effects of monetary policy should be paid attention to.