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在过去的18个月中,我们强调对美国经济增长高于业内预期的上升风险。有利的金融条件,技术的快速发展和强有力的全球经济复苏是这一预测的基础。即使是讨论相当多的软着陆到目前为止也并不象预期的那样顺利。虽然在消费品和住房市场方面增长显著减缓,但随着领导层很快转向出口和资本消费,美国经济的抗御力仍继续令人惊叹。那是当时的情况。现在我们认为增长的可能性正在转向下滑。能源价格上升仍然威胁美国的增长,虽然美
In the past 18 months, we have emphasized the risk of higher economic growth in the United States than the industry is expecting. Favorable financial conditions, rapid technological development and a strong global economic recovery are the cornerstones of this prediction. Even a fairly soft landing for discussion has not been as smooth as expected. While there has been a marked slowdown in growth in the consumer goods and housing markets, the resilience of the U.S. economy continues to be marvelous as the leadership quickly shifts to exports and capital spending. That is the situation at the time. Now we think the possibility of growth is declining. The rise in energy prices still threatens the growth of the United States, albeit the United States