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目的了解天津市近年来戊型肝炎(戊肝)发病趋势、特征和感染因素,为进一步制定戊肝防控措施提供参考依据。方法 2004-2013年戊肝疫情数据来自《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》,采用描述流行病学分析人群、时间和地区流行特征及趋势,并对2013年报告戊肝病例感染因素现况分析;运用SPSS19.0对历史发病数据拟合建模,利用时间序列Winters加法模型对2014年发病情况进行预测。结果天津近10年报告戊肝2 898例,发病率为2.48/10万,戊肝病死率为2.07‰,死亡率为1/1 000万,发病率逐年下降(χ2趋势=1 120.44,P<0.01),预测2014年发病率为0.90/10万。<20岁发病率为0.11/10万,≥20岁为3.01/10万(χ2=618.71,P<0.01);男性发病率(3.84/10万)高于女性(1.00/10万)(χ2=962.84,P<0.01);1~5月报告发病率(1.37/10万)高于6~12月(1.11/10万)(χ2=24.137,P<0.01);潜伏期内食用海产品占50.00%(61/122),猪养殖屠宰加工销售相关职业仅占4.10%(5/122),而饭前洗手习惯中经常及以上占86.07%(105/122)。结论天津市近年来戊肝发病率呈现下降趋势;男性发病率高于女性,小年龄组发病率低于高年龄组,呈春季高峰;食用海产品可能为天津主要感染来源。
Objective To understand the trend, characteristics and infection factors of hepatitis E (hepatitis E) in Tianjin in recent years and provide reference for further development of hepatitis E prevention and control measures. Methods The data of epidemic situation of hepatitis E from 2004 to 2013 were from China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Epidemiology was used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trend of crowd, time and region. The epidemiological analysis of infectious status of hepatitis E in 2013 was also made. SPSS 19.0 was used to model the historical incidence data, and the incidence of 2014 was predicted by the time series Winters addition model. Results In the past 10 years, 2 898 cases of hepatitis E were reported in Tianjin. The incidence rate was 2.48 / 100 000. The mortality rate of hepatitis E was 2.07 ‰ and the death rate was 1/10 million. The incidence decreased year by year (χ2 trend = 120.44, P < 0.01). The incidence in 2014 is predicted to be 0.90 / 100,000. The prevalence was <0.11 / 100,000 at 20 years and 3.01 / 100,000 at 20 years of age (χ2 = 618.71, P <0.01). The incidence of males was higher than that of females (1.00 / 100,000) 962.84, P <0.01). The reported incidence in January-May was 1.37 / lakh higher than that in June-December (1.11 / 100000) (χ2 = 24.137, P <0.01) (61/122), only 4.10% (5/122) occupations in pig breeding, slaughter and processing related occupations, and 86.07% (105/122) frequently and above all. Conclusion The incidence of hepatitis E in Tianjin shows a decreasing trend in recent years. The morbidity of males is higher than that of females. The morbidity of the younger age group is lower than that of the high age group, and the peak appears in spring. The consumption of seafood may be the main source of infection in Tianjin.