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干旱和洪涝是造成水稻减产最主要的自然灾害,稻农通过采用保护性耕作可以减少其对水稻的产量损失。基于2013—2015年中国水稻主产区1 080个水稻农户的调研面板数据,论文采用内生转换模型,实证分析了稻农通过采用保护性耕作应对干旱或洪涝的效果,并分别估计了采用者和未采用者的水稻单产情况。实证结果表明:1)采用者的水稻单产远远高于未采用者的水稻单产;2)在反事实假设情况下,如果采用者未采用保护性耕作,其水稻产量将相应减产457.95 kg/hm~2(约7%);如果未采用者采用保护性耕作,其水稻产量将相应增产225 kg/hm~2(约4%);3)户主种植经验、受教育年限和公共服务可得性正向影响稻农的采用行为。最后,论文建议政府应大力推广保护性耕作技术,加大对抗逆水稻品种的培育,加强对农业生产资料的投入和管理,扩大公共服务的覆盖范围。
Droughts and floods are the most important natural disasters that cause rice production cuts. Rice farmers can reduce their losses in rice production through the use of conservation tillage. Based on the survey panel data of 1 080 rice farmers in major rice producing areas of China from 2013 to 2015, the paper uses endogenous transformation models to analyze the effect of rice farmers on drought or flood through the use of conservation tillage, and estimates the users And the non-adopter’s rice yield. The empirical results show that: 1) the user’s rice yield is much higher than that of the non-adopter’s rice; 2) Under the counterfactual assumption, if the adopter does not adopt conservation tillage, the rice yield will be reduced by 457.95 kg / hm ~ 2 (about 7%). If the adopters adopt conservation tillage, the yield of rice will increase by 225 kg / hm ~ 2 (about 4%). 3) The planting experience, the years of education and the availability of public services Positive impact on rice farmers adoption behavior. Finally, the paper suggests that the government should vigorously promote conservation tillage techniques, increase the cultivation of anti-counter-rice varieties, strengthen the input and management of agricultural means of production, and expand the coverage of public services.