论文部分内容阅读
2002年￣2006年8月中旬,国际市场油价基本处于上升通道,虽然近3个月来有所回落,但仍然处于60美元/桶的高位。同时,2006年美国经济增长速度由于高油价的影响明显减慢,而欧洲经济则处于强劲增长态势,导致WTI与布伦特、迪拜油价的价差明显缩小。基于对2007年国际石油市场运行环境的分析,通过设计基准场景和非基准场景两种不同市场场景分别对2007年国际原油价格水平及走势进行预测,综合得出2007年国际市场原油均价可能在55～65美元/桶区间,全年油价在60美元/桶左右。
From 2002 to mid-August 2006, oil prices in the international market were basically on the upward path. Although oil prices dropped in the past three months, they remained at a high of 60 U.S. dollars per barrel. In the meantime, in 2006, the U.S. economic growth rate slowed significantly due to the impact of high oil prices, while the European economy was in a strong growth situation. As a result, the spread between WTI and Brent and Dubai oil prices was significantly reduced. Based on the analysis of the international oil market operating environment in 2007, the international crude oil price levels and trends in 2007 were predicted respectively through two different market scenarios, namely, benchmark-based scenario and non-benchmark scenario. It is concluded that the average price of crude oil in the international market in 2007 may be at 55 ~ 65 US dollars / barrel range, annual oil prices at 60 US dollars / barrel.