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外商直接投资通过获得高新技术、转移过剩产能、获取海外丰富资源、市场信息及先进的管理经验等方式促进一国产业结构的升级。选取天津市1992-2011年的面板数据作为样本,运用协整理论、Granger因果关系对外商直接投资与国内产业结构升级的关系进行了研究。研究结果表明,外商直接投资短期内不能促进产业结构升级,而从长期来看对产业结构的优化升级起促进作用。天津市应该提升第三产业对整个经济的带动作用,发挥天津对全国的示范带动作用;合理引导外商直接投资的产业方向,制定长远的产业发展战略,实现外商直接投资的质与量并重,以有效促进天津产业结构的优化升级;创造适合外商直接投资的投融资软环境,充分发挥国内投资及人力资本对产业结构优化和经济增长的“引擎”作用。
Foreign direct investment promotes the upgrading of the industrial structure of a country through such ways as obtaining high and new technology, transferring excess capacity, acquiring abundant overseas resources, market information and advanced management experience. Taking the panel data of Tianjin from 1992 to 2011 as a sample, the paper uses cointegration theory and Granger causality to study the relationship between foreign direct investment and the upgrading of domestic industrial structure. The results show that foreign direct investment can not promote the upgrading of industrial structure in the short run, and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in the long run. Tianjin should promote the tertiary industry’s leading role in promoting the economy as a whole and give play to the role of Tianjin in demonstrating its capabilities across the country. It should guide the industries of foreign direct investment in a rational manner and formulate long-term industrial development strategies so that the quality and quantity of foreign direct investment can be balanced Effectively promote the optimization and upgrading of Tianjin’s industrial structure; create a soft environment for investment and financing that is suitable for foreign direct investment and give full play to the role of domestic investment and human capital in optimizing the industrial structure and economic growth.