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整体来看,2016年水泥市场回暖迹象明显,尤其是下半年以来,水泥价格和行业利润均大幅回升。需求端基建部分增速下行趋势在放缓,PPP项目储备对水泥需求形成一定支撑,供给侧改革持续推进,错峰计划顺利执行,明年水泥行业供需两侧有望保持平衡。我们认为行业盈利压力落在了成本端,未来还要看价格与成本的赛跑进程,产业链布局全面、并购重组积极的公司有望在成本控制中取胜,推荐海螺水泥、华新水泥。
Overall, signs of a pick-up in the cement market in 2016 are evident, especially since the second half of the year, both cement prices and industry profits rebounded sharply. The downward trend in the growth of demand-side infrastructure is slowing down. The reserve of PPP projects will provide some support to cement demand. The supply-side reform will continue to be implemented and the peak-shifting plan will be implemented smoothly. It is expected that the supply and demand of cement industry will be balanced next year. We think the profit pressure of the industry falls on the cost side. In the future, we will also look at the race between price and cost. The comprehensive industrial chain layout and positive corporate mergers and acquisitions are expected to win the cost control. Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement are recommended.