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鉴于湿润地区气候和人类活动对径流预报结果的影响,以淠河流域横排头水文站以上的六个子流域为例,基于Budyko假设的五种公式进行了年径流量模拟,对1960~1987、2001~2009年两个时段分别进行率定和检验。结果表明,六个子流域中,只有黄尾河、白莲崖和横排头子流域适用五种公式(NSE平均值±标准差依次为0.677±0.157、0.718±0.147、0.687±0.101);Turc-Pike公式和傅抱璞公式的模拟结果均能接受(NSE平均值±标准差依次为0.681±0.139、0.677±0.141),产生误差的原因在于不同阶段降雨—径流的相关性对模型模拟精度的影响较大(P<0.05)。
In view of the influence of climate and human activities on the runoff forecast results in wet areas, taking the six sub-basins above the Hengtaitou hydrological station in the Bahe River basin as an example, annual runoff simulation is conducted based on five formulas of Budyko’s assumptions. From 1960 to 1987, 2001 ~ 2009, two were rated and tested respectively. The results showed that among the six sub-basins, only the Huangwei River, Bailianliao and Hengtaitouzi watersheds had five formulas (mean ± standard deviation (NSE) of 0.677 ± 0.157,0.718 ± 0.147,0.687 ± 0.101), Turc-Pike formula The simulation results of Fu-Pu formula were acceptable (NSE mean ± standard deviation were 0.681 ± 0.139 and 0.677 ± 0.141, respectively). The reason for the error was that the correlation between rainfall and runoff greatly affected the model accuracy (P < 0.05).