论文部分内容阅读
本文引入并拓展了“公地悲剧”模型,从厂商的理性选择出发,描述了内生性萧条的形成过程,并指出萧条的实质是一种由竞争的负外部性所导致的合成谬误现象;合成谬误是一种宏观市场失灵,因而稳定化政策是政府的必然选择;合成谬误的程度与行业中的厂商数目正相关,如果厂商数目足够多,合成谬误有可能严重到使行业陷于萧条状态;不同行业厂商数目不同,所以合成谬误的程度亦不同,这使萧条表现出结构性特征;企业之间的兼并联合会弱化合成谬误,因而随着行业成熟度的不断提高,经济波动会自动减轻,故无需政府的过多干预。
This paper introduces and expands the tragedy of the commons model, describes the formation process of endogenous depression from the rational choice of manufacturers, and points out that the essence of depression is a synthetic fallacy caused by the negative externality of competition ; Synthetic fallacy is a macro-market failure, so the stabilization policy is the inevitable choice of the government; the degree of synthetic fallacy is positively related to the number of firms in the industry. If the number of firms is large enough, the synthetic fallacies may be so severe that the industry is in a depression ; The number of manufacturers in different industries is different, so the degree of synthetic fallacy is also different, which makes the depression show the structural characteristics; merging between the merging of enterprises to weaken the synthetic error, so as the maturity of the industry continues to improve, economic fluctuations will automatically reduce Therefore, there is no need for excessive government intervention.