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鉴于大跨浅埋公路隧道施工风险评估的模糊属性,采用模糊数学方法定量化处理施工风险估计中的定性问题。建立了茅山隧道施工风险多层次模糊综合评价数学模型,运用模糊理论对专家给出的茅山隧道施工各项风险因素的概率等级和损失等级隶属度进行统计分析,得到了各因素的概率及损失估计结果。基于R=P×C模型考虑了风险因素发生概率及损失对风险评估的影响,得到各风险因素、基本风险事件的风险等级,确定茅山隧道施工的安全风险、环境影响风险及整体风险等级为四级,应采取有效的风险控制措施应对。研究表明,模糊理论解决了风险评估中的模糊性及量化问题,可作为评估大跨浅埋公路隧道施工阶段风险的有效模型。
In view of the fuzzy attribute of risk assessment of construction of long-span shallow tunnel, the fuzzy mathematics method is used to quantitatively process the qualitative problems in construction risk estimation. The mathematic model of multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of construction risk in Maoshan tunnel was established. By using fuzzy theory, probability and loss grade affiliations of various risk factors of Maoshan tunnel construction given by experts were statistically analyzed, and the probability and loss estimates of each factor were obtained result. Based on R = P × C model, the probability of occurrence of risk factors and the impact of loss on risk assessment are considered, the risk levels of risk factors and basic risk events are obtained, and the safety risk of construction of Maoshan tunnel is determined. The risk of environmental impact and the overall risk level are four Level, should take effective risk control measures to deal with. The research shows that fuzzy theory solves the fuzziness and quantification problems in risk assessment and can be used as an effective model to evaluate the risk during the construction of long-span highway tunnels.