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本文在内生增长理论框架下分析税收结构与生产性支出对经济增长率的影响,运用我国1997-2006年29个省份的数据,通过面板数据模型,考察了税收结构变动对经济增长的影响及其在三大地区间的差异。本研究区别于其他研究的主要有两点:一是实证分析中考虑了政府预算约束;二是同时考察了收入不变和收入增加时的税收结构变动。研究表明,我国所得税和财产税份额的上升并没有阻碍经济增长率的上升,但税收结构变动的经济增长效应在三大区域间存在显著差异:所得税份额的上升扩大了东西地区间的差距,而财产税份额的上升却缩小了东西地区间的差距。为促进经济均衡增长,今后税收结构调整方向应为在不降低所得税份额的情况下提高财产税份额。
This paper analyzes the impact of tax structure and productive expenditure on economic growth rate under the framework of endogenous growth theory. By using the data of 29 provinces in China from 1997 to 2006, this paper examines the impact of tax structure change on economic growth through the panel data model. Its difference between the three major regions. The main difference between this study and other studies is that there are two main points. One is that the government budget constraint is considered in the empirical analysis; the other is the tax structure change when the income is constant and the income increases. The research shows that the increase of the share of income tax and property tax in our country does not hinder the increase of economic growth rate, but the economic growth effect of tax structure change has significant difference among the three major regions. The increase of share of income tax expands the gap between eastern and western regions. The increase in the share of property tax has narrowed the gap between eastern and western regions. In order to promote balanced economic growth, the direction of tax structure readjustment in the future should be to increase the share of property tax without reducing the share of income tax.