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选择对强射性核废物的地质隔离场址,首先应从一般地质上考虑,用分析判断能力来预测当地的地质条件。从场址选择的不同阶段——场址普查、地面测试、库体试验、施工、试用和收尾期间调查得来的资料——将大有助于提高这种判断能力。假设在每个阶段之后,要保证所给定的可靠程度,试问,“你考虑中的场址或贮库能够成为运营贮库的可能性是什么?”对这个问题的回答,与各个阶段所搜集的资料以及已有的地质、地球化学和地球物理预测的可靠性有关。为此,本文的第一节概述现有区域和当地地质预测方面的经验,以及从
Choosing a geologically isolated site for a highly-radioactive nuclear waste should first of all be geologically considered, using analytical judgment to predict the local geological conditions. The different stages of site selection - site census, ground tests, library tests, construction, trials and financings - will greatly help to improve this judgment. Assuming that, after each stage, to be sure of the given level of reliability, we ask, “What is the probability that the site or depot you are considering can become an operational repository?” The answer to this question, The information collected and the reliability of available forecasts for geology, geochemistry and geophysics. To this end, the first section of this article outlines the experience of existing regional and local geological forecasts,