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全球量化宽松的背景下,经济基本面形势以及国际资本的风险偏好仍然是新兴市场货币走势的主导因素。2013年一季度,新兴市场国家经济保持温和增长,虽然通胀率有所抬头,但依然可控。欧、美、日不断加码的激进量化宽松政策,引发了对新兴经济体货币受累的担忧。对此,笔者认为,纵观2013年年初至目前的新兴市场货币走势,其主要还是取决于其内外部经济的基本面,同时更多反映的是国际资本的风险偏好,而非量化宽松政策的溢出效应。
Against the background of global quantitative easing, the economic fundamentals and the risk appetite of international capital are still the dominant factors in emerging market currencies. In the first quarter of 2013, the economies of emerging market countries maintained moderate growth. Although the inflation rate is on the rise, it is still manageable. Aggressive quantitative easing in Europe, the United States and Japan has led to fears of currency involvement in emerging economies. In this regard, I believe that, looking at emerging markets from the beginning of 2013 to the current trend of the currency, mainly depends on its internal and external economic fundamentals, while more reflects the risk appetite of international capital, rather than the quantitative easing policy Spillover Effect.