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为掌握自然人群乙型肝炎的平均传播速度，以更好地控制该病。本文作者选用可逆催化模型对自然人群乙型肝炎的平均传播速度作了定量分析。结果表明，所建立的可逆催化模型理论拟合良好，其理论估计值与实际观察值总体拟合精度达９６．５５％，最高可达９９．８５％，经配合适度检验χ２＝１．９６０，Ｐ＞０．０５，说明用可逆催化模型作自然人群乙型肝炎传播速度测量有其独特的优势。结果还提示：在徐州市区每年每１０００人中约有９４人表现为血清抗－ＨＢｓ阳性或显性感染，同时又有５２人转阴性，当地人群乙型肝炎流行率最高可估计为６４．６％，这种低流行率被认为与乙型肝炎疫苗广泛应用有关
To master the average rate of spread of hepatitis B in natural populations to better control the disease. The authors selected a reversible catalytic model of quantitative analysis of the average rate of transmission of hepatitis B in the natural population. The results show that the theory of reversible catalysis model fitting well, the theoretical fitting value of the theoretical estimated value and the actual observed value of 96.55%, up to 99.85%, with the appropriate test χ2 = 1.960, P> 0.05, indicating that reversible catalytic model for the natural population of hepatitis B transmission velocity measurement has its unique advantages. The results also suggest that in Xuzhou urban areas, about 94 out of every 1,000 people show serum anti-HBs positive or dominant infection, while 52 people turn negative at the same time. The prevalence rate of hepatitis B in the local population can be estimated to be 64 at most. 6%, this low prevalence is considered with the hepatitis B vaccine is widely used