GM(1,1)模型预测我国石油需求量

• 作 者: 陈海涛
• 机 构: 义乌工商职业技术学院外语外贸分院,
• 出 处: 生态经济
• 发表日期: 2014年02期
• 关键词: 石油 需求量 GM(1 1)模型 预测

传统的资源需求预测方法有类比法、外推法和因果分析方法等,但已有的预测结果精确度均较低。运用灰色系统理论建立石油需求量预测GM(1,1)模型,从对我国石油需求预测的结果来看,与历史需求值较为符合,可靠性较高。并利用该模型对未来5年的石油需求量进行了预测。

The traditional resource demand forecasting methods include analogy, extrapolation and causal analysis, but the accuracy of the existing forecasting results is low. Applying the gray system theory to establish the GM (1,1) model of oil demand forecast, from the result of forecasting the demand of petroleum in our country, it is more consistent with the historical demand value and more reliable. And use this model to predict the oil demand in the next 5 years.