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根据滑坡泥石流灾害资料、耕地面积和公路里程等反映人类活动的资料以及降水资料,在定义了低纬高原区滑坡泥石流指数、人类活动指数和降水指数的基础上,研究了人类活动和降水变化对低纬高原区滑坡泥石流中长期演变的影响规律。结果表明,滑坡泥石流发生频次的中长期演变呈现出每年增加0.9次的趋势,且其演变具有明显的阶段性,从少发期到多发期的突变点出现在1993年。在11～16年的尺度上,人类活动与滑坡泥石流之间存在密切的关系。人类活动指数与滑坡泥石流发生频次之间为极显著的同位相关系,且人类活动超前于滑坡泥石流发生为0.2～2.8年;人类活动所导致的地质环境恶化是使低纬高原区滑坡泥石流频次增加的主要原因;除去人类活动影响后,低纬高原区滑坡泥石流与主汛期降水关系密切;在准3年和准6年尺度上,低纬高原区滑坡泥石流与主汛期降水呈显著的同位相关系,且低纬高原区主汛期降水超前于滑坡泥石流发生为0～0.8年;主汛期降水是影响低纬高原区滑坡泥石流频次变化的另一原因。最后,建立了考虑人类活动和主汛期降水且具有良好模拟和预测能力的低纬高原区滑坡泥石流的中长期演变预测模型。
Based on the data of human activities and precipitation reflecting the data of landslide debris flow, the area of cultivated land and highway mileage, and the definition of the landslide debris flow index, human activity index and precipitation index on the low latitude plateau, the effects of human activities and precipitation on Influence law of long - term evolution of landslide debris flow on low latitude plateau. The results show that the long-term evolution of the frequency of landslide debris flow shows a tendency of increasing 0.9 times per year, and its evolution has obvious stage. The change point from the early period to the multiple period appears in 1993. At the scale of 11-16 years, there is a close relationship between human activities and landslide debris flow. The human activities index and landslide debris flow frequency between the extremely significant isotopic relationship, and human activities ahead of the landslide debris flow occurred from 0.2 to 2.8 years; human activities caused by the deterioration of the geological environment is the low latitude plateau landslide debris flow frequency increases . After removing the influence of human activities, the landslide debris flow in the low latitude plateau area is closely related to the precipitation in the main flood season. The landslide debris flow in the low latitude plateau area is significantly in-phase with the precipitation in the main flood season at the quasi-3 and 6-year scales , And the rainfall in the main flood season in the low latitude plateau is 0 ~ 0.8 years ahead of the landslide debris flow; and the precipitation in the main flood season is another reason that affects the frequency variation of the landslide debris flow in the low latitude plateau region. Finally, a medium- and long-term evolutionary prediction model of landslide debris flow in low latitude plateau area with human activities and precipitation in the main flood season and good simulation and prediction ability is established.