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确保国家粮食安全始终是治国安邦的头等大事.立足于居民整体食物消费趋势的判断与分析,分别测算了薯类杂粮对谷物、动物产品对口粮、饲草料对饲料粮的替代空间,并在此基础上对2020年粮食需求做出了预测.分析结果表明,受人均口粮消费下降、薯类杂粮口粮消费增加等因素影响,与2014年相比,2020年我国水稻、小麦需求量将分别减少539万t、108万t;增加饲草料在草食动物的饲喂比重既能明显改善其饲料营养结构,还可节约使用籽粒玉米1 100万t、豆粕770万t;在保障口粮绝对安全的基础上,通过进口大豆、适量玉米及杂粮,2020年我国粮食产量可以调减为6.04亿t,调整出567万hm2播种面积用于发展青贮玉米、牧草或休耕.上述结果可为当前农业供给侧改革提供决策参考.“,”It is always a major event to ensure national grain security for running a country and bringing peace to people.Based on judgment and analysis of food consumption trend,this paper measured the substitution space about the miscellaneous grains of potatoes-cereals,animal product-grain ration,feed forage-feed grain,reasonably.On this basis,the paper also forecasted the grain demand in 2020.The result indicated that the requirement for rice,wheat in 2020 would reduce 539×104 t and 108×104 t,respectively,compared with that in 2014,owing to the factors:food consumption per capita falling down;consumption of miscellaneous grains of potatoes-cereals increasing.Increasing the proportion of fodder grass in feed for herbivore could not only obviously improve the trophic structure,but also save 1 100×104 t of maize,770×104 t bean pulp.On the basis of ensuring grain ration safety absolutely,the grain output could be adjusted to 6.04× 10s t in 2020 by importing soybean,maize and miscellaneous grains.567× 104 hm2 of land could be saved to develop silo corn,pasture or even lie fallow.These conclusions could offer important decision-making basis for agricultural supply-side reform.