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本文运用LMDI完全分解方法对1995-2010年期间中国制造业产业CO2排放做分解分析,把影响制造业CO2排放变化的因素分解为排放因子效应、能源强度效应、能源结构效应、产业结构效应和产业规模效应。研究发现:产业规模的扩张是导致中国制造业CO2排放增加的主要原因,产业结构的变化也在一定程度上影响了CO2的排放变化,而能源强度的降低可以对CO2排放的减少做出突出贡献,排放因子效应和能源结构效应对CO2排放的变化起不到决定性的作用。
In this paper, we decompose the CO2 emissions of China’s manufacturing industry from 1995 to 2010 by LMDI decomposition method. The factors that affect the changes of CO2 emissions in manufacturing industry are decomposed into emission factor effect, energy intensity effect, energy structure effect, industrial structure effect and industry Scale effect. The results show that the expansion of industrial scale is the main reason for the increase of CO2 emissions in China’s manufacturing industry. The changes of industrial structure also affect the changes of CO2 emissions to a certain extent, while the reduction of energy intensity can make a significant contribution to the reduction of CO2 emissions , The emission factor effect and the energy structure effect have a decisive effect on the change of CO2 emissions.