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改革开放以来,由于传统的二元户籍和劳动力市场制度没有根本改变,农村转移劳动力融入城市仍有一定障碍,大量农业剩余通过劳动力价格扭曲转移到城市部门。本文首先应用统计模型对1980—2011年中国农村转移劳动力价格扭曲对城市经济增长的贡献进行了统计研究,然后运用MLE估计方法和变系数半参数估计方法进行了实证分析。研究表明:一个农村转移劳动力从1980年进入城市工作到2011年止,因价格扭曲对城市部门的贡献约为22.09万元,而所有农村转移劳动力,因价格扭曲对城市部门的贡献共计约为43.42万亿元;农村转移劳动力价格扭曲对城市部门经济增长有29%的正向影响。同时,工资扭曲对城市部门国民收入变化的影响在不同时期是在不断变化的。
Since the reform and opening up, due to the fact that the traditional system of dual household registration and labor market has not fundamentally changed, there is still some obstacle to the transfer of rural labor force into the cities, and a large amount of agricultural surplus is transferred to urban departments through labor price distortions. In this paper, we first use statistical models to study the contribution of price distortions of rural migrant workers in 1980-2011 to urban economic growth, and then make empirical analysis using MLE method and variable coefficient semi-parametric method. Studies show that: a rural migrant workers from entering the city in 1980 until the end of 2011, due to price distortions to the contribution of the urban sector is about 220,900 yuan, while all rural migrant workers, due to price distortions to the contribution of the urban sector, a total of about 43.42 One trillion yuan; labor price distortions in rural areas have a 29% positive impact on economic growth in the urban sector. At the same time, the effects of wage distortions on the changes in national income in urban sectors are constantly changing at different times.