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本研究对近40年来影响南海东北部陆架海区的28次台风引起的风暴潮进行了数值后报,其中8个过程的沿岸后报增水值与实测值进行了比较,表明后报值与实测值符合良好,90%以上的最大增水值偏差在30厘米以下。为了得出本海区多年一遇的台风增水极值,在后报台风路径密集处选择了9个不同水深点,对每点取出各次台风下的最大增水值,然后用Weibull分布进行拟合,得出了各点的极值分布。
In this study, 28 typhoon-induced storm surges that affected the northeastern continental shelf of the South China Sea in recent 40 years were reported numerically. Among them, the increase of water-cut values reported after 8 coastal banks was compared with the measured values, The values are in good condition, and the maximum water-gain deviation of more than 90% is below 30 cm. In order to obtain the annual extreme typhoon water enhancement value in the sea area, nine different water depths were selected after the typhoon path was reported intensively, the maximum water intensification value under each typhoon was extracted for each point, and then the Weibull distribution was used Together, come to the extreme distribution of each point.