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目的研究广州市海珠区登革热发病与气象因素的关系,为制定登革热在高发季节的防控措施提供科学依据。方法收集广州市海珠区2006-2015年登革热发病数据、媒介伊蚊密度监测数据和同期广州市气象数据,采用Pearson相关、多元和Logistic回归分析登革热与伊蚊密度和气象因素的相关性。结果伊蚊密度与同期的最高气温、最低气温、平均气温、平均降雨量、最大日降雨量、月累积雨量、相对湿度、平均气压有关,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。经回归分析,得出回归方程:Y_(BI)=-5.687+0.354X,只有最高气温X引入方程。对方程的检验,差异有统计学意义(F=111.674,P=0.000)。登革热发病与伊蚊密度和气象因素的Logistic回归方程:P(I)=1/(1+e~(-(-159.399+1.934X1+0.525X_2)),X_1为平均风速,X_2为伊蚊密度,经检验,χ~2=44.493,P<0.000 1,说明回归方程差异有统计学意义。结论气象因素通过影响伊蚊密度的变化影响登革热发病,了解气象因素,及时采取有效措施控制伊蚊密度成为登革热防控的关键。
Objective To study the relationship between the incidence of dengue fever and meteorological factors in Haizhu District, Guangzhou, and to provide a scientific basis for the development of dengue fever prevention and control measures in high season. Methods The data of incidence of dengue fever, vector mosquito density monitoring data and meteorological data of Guangzhou were collected from 2006 to 2015 in Haizhu district of Guangzhou. Pearson correlation, multivariate and Logistic regression analysis were used to analyze the correlation between dengue fever and Aedes mosquitoes density and meteorological factors. Results The Aedes aegypti density was related to the highest temperature, the lowest temperature, the average temperature, the average rainfall, the maximum daily rainfall, the monthly cumulative rainfall, the relative humidity and the average air pressure in the same period (P <0.05). Regression analysis showed that the regression equation: Y BI = 5.687 + 0.354X, only the maximum temperature X was introduced into the equation. The equation test, the difference was statistically significant (F = 111.674, P = 0.000). Logistic regression equation of dengue fever incidence and Aedes aegypti density and meteorological factors: P (I) = 1 / (1 + e ~ (- (- 159.399 + 1.934X1 + 0.525X_2)), X_1 is mean wind speed, , Χ ~ 2 = 44.493, P <0.0001, indicating that the regression equation was statistically significant.Conclusion Meteorological factors affect the incidence of dengue fever by affecting the density of Aedes mosquitoes, understand the meteorological factors, and take timely and effective measures to control the density of Aedes mosquitoes Become the key to prevention and control of dengue.