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【目的】建立一个可以预测温室标准切花菊现蕾和收获期的模拟模型,为温室切花菊温光调控提供决策支持。【方法】根据菊花(Chrysanthe mummorifolium Ramat.)发育对光温反应的特性,提出了生理辐热积(physiological product of thermal effectiveness and PAR,PTEP)的概念,通过不同扦插期和不同品种的试验,建立了以生理辐热积(PTEP)为尺度的温室标准切花菊发育模型,并用独立的试验数据对模型进行了检验。【结果】模型对从扦插到定植、短日处理、现蕾和收获期的模拟预测值与实测值的符合度较好,预测值与实测值间1:1线的回归估计标准误差RMSE分别为2.3、2.9、1.2和3.2d,预测精度明显高于以有效积温为尺度的发育模型(RMSE分别为3.0、12.5、12.5和15.6d)。【结论】本研究建立的模型能较准确地预测标准切花菊各个发育阶段出现的时间与收获期,可以为中国温室标准切花菊周年生产的光温调控提供理论依据和决策支持。
【Objective】 The objective of this study was to establish a simulation model that can predict the greenhouse standard cut chrysanthemum budding and harvesting period and provide decision support for the greenhouse light chrysanthemum temperature regulation. 【Method】 The concept of physiological product of thermal effectiveness and PAR (PTEP) was proposed based on the characteristics of light-temperature response to the development of Chrysanthe mummorifolium Ramat. Through the experiments of different cuttings and varieties, The greenhouse standard cut chrysanthemum growth model based on PTEC was tested and the model was tested with independent experimental data. 【Result】 The results were in good agreement with the measured values from cuttings to colonization, short-day treatment, budding and harvesting. The standard error of regression estimation of 1: 1 line between predicted and measured values was 2.3, 2.9, 1.2 and 3.2 d, the prediction accuracy was significantly higher than that of the effective accumulated temperature (RMSE 3.0, 12.5, 12.5 and 15.6 d, respectively). 【Conclusion】 The model established in this study can accurately predict the occurrence time and harvest period of standard cut chrysanthemum at various developmental stages, which can provide theoretical basis and decision-making support for the light and temperature regulation of annual production of cut chrysanthemum in China.