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长三角地区的人均GDP和经济结构状况显示,该地区正处在工业化起飞和成熟阶段之间,地区工业化的发展即将稳定,服务业加快发展将会成为一种趋势。该地区的经济波动呈现出“微波化”和“短落长起”的特点。在对长三角地区服务业发展和经济波动的基本事实的研判的基础上,本文构建了服务业与经济波动关系及其影响机制的数理模型,分析表明服务业对经济波动具有双重作用:即服务业所占比值增加具有波动缓冲的作用;服务业的存在本身对经济波动具有熨烫作用。最后,本文利用HP滤波和脉冲响应函数实证检验了这种作用的存在性。
The per capita GDP and economic structure of the Yangtze River Delta show that the region is in the process of industrialization taking off and maturing. The development of regional industrialization is about to stabilize, and the accelerated development of service industry will become a trend. The economic fluctuations in the region show the characteristics of “microwave” and “short growth”. Based on the analysis of the basic facts about service industry development and economic fluctuation in the Yangtze River Delta, this paper constructs a mathematical model of the relationship between service industry and economy and its impact mechanism. The analysis shows that service industry plays a dual role in economic fluctuation: service The increase in the ratio of industries has the effect of fluctuating buffer; the existence of service industry itself has the effect of ironing economic fluctuations. Finally, this paper empirically tests the existence of this function by using HP filter and impulse response function.