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以2006年6月至2015年12月我国大宗农产品价格指数月度时间序列作为研究对象.构建ARIMA(1,1,1)模型对我国大宗农产品价格指数进行了拟合和预测,并对模型拟合效果和预测准确度进行了检验,效果均良好.预测结果表明,从长期变化趋势看,我国大宗农产品价格指数上涨是大势所趋.从短期变化趋势看,大宗农产品面对较大的价格下行压力.
The monthly time series of the price index of bulk agricultural products in China from June 2006 to December 2015 were taken as the research object.The ARIMA (1,1,1) model was constructed to fit and predict the price index of bulk agricultural products in our country and the model fitting Effect and forecasting accuracy are tested.The results show that from the long-term trend, the price index of bulk agricultural products in China is the trend of the rising trend.From the short-term trend of change, the bulk of agricultural products in the face of greater price downward pressure.