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针对我国溃坝相关资料缺乏、数据均匀连续性较差的现状,将可变模糊集理论引入到溃坝生命损失预测中,建立基于可变模糊聚类(VFC)循环迭代模型的人口死亡率预测模型。采用相邻模糊标度法确定指标权重,运用模型得到最优相对隶属度矩阵和最优聚类中心矩阵,结合欧氏距离,对样本进行二次筛选,再运用指数加权平均法,计算得到待估样本人口死亡率估计值。实例验算证明,该模型符合我国现状,具有一定的实用性和较高的精度。
Aiming at the current situation of the lack of dam-breakage data and the poor continuity of data in our country, this paper introduces variable fuzzy set theory into the life-loss prediction of dam failure and establishes a population mortality prediction based on variable fuzzy clustering (VFC) iteration model model. The adjacent fuzzy scale method is used to determine the weight of the index. The optimal relative membership degree matrix and the optimal clustering center matrix are obtained by using the model. Combined with the Euclidean distance, the sample is screened twice, and then the index weighted average method is used to calculate Estimate the estimated population mortality. The example verification shows that the model is in line with the current situation in our country and has certain practicality and high precision.