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简述了对新疆阿图什69级、乌苏南58级地震的中短期(填卡)预报研究过程。把地震大形势分析与大地形变资料确定的中长期地震危险区、全国会商圈定的中期、年度地震危险区研究相结合,判断地震危险区中紧迫程度高的地区;把大区域地震活动与大地形变演化特征相结合,进行大区域地震形势跟踪分析,判定1年尺度强震活动的主要区带;尽可能利用更多的资料信息,对长、中、短时间域和大、中、小空间域资料信息的定性综合分析等,实现预测区域由大到小的逼近,取得了较好的预报效果。对地震预报的一些问题进行了讨论。
In the short and medium term (filling card) prediction process of Atushi 69 and Wusunan 58 earthquakes in Xinjiang are briefly described. Combining the analysis of the general situation of the earthquake with the medium and long-term earthquake risk areas identified by the deformation data of the earth and the mid-term and annual earthquake risk areas identified by the commercial circles in the country, the areas with high urgency in the earthquake danger area are judged; Combining the evolution features of the earth’s deformation and the earthquakes, tracking and analyzing the earthquake situation in large areas, and determining the major zones of strong earthquakes on a one-year scale. Using more data and information as much as possible, the paper analyzes the long, medium and short time domains and large, The qualitative and comprehensive analysis of spatial domain information and other information, to achieve the prediction area from small to small approach, and achieved good forecasting results. Some questions about earthquake prediction are discussed.