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目的 评估中国冬季气候变暖可能影响血吸虫病传播范围和程度。方法 从全国733个气象站中选取126个气象站的历年1月份平均气温和最低平均气温资料,分析冬季气温变暖的趋势和幅度;用1月份平均气温0℃、最低平均气温-4℃指标来评估气候变暖对血吸虫病传播范围的影响,并分析这两个指标之间的关系。结果 全国冬季气温呈明显上升趋势,1月份最低平均气温和平均气温在1986年前后两个时间段内平均值分别上升1.3℃、0.9℃左右,1月份最低平均气温-4℃和平均气温0℃等值线向北移动1～2个纬度。结论 冬季气温变暖有利于钉螺越冬;气候变暖和“南水北调”加大了钉螺向北扩散的可能性,应加强钉螺的监测工作。
Objective To assess the extent and extent of the spread of schistosomiasis in winter in China. Methods The data of average temperature and minimum temperature of January and January in 126 meteorological stations from 733 weather stations in China were selected to analyze the trends and amplitudes of warming in winter. Based on the data of January mean temperature 0 ℃ and lowest average temperature -4 ℃ To assess the impact of climate warming on the spread of schistosomiasis and to analyze the relationship between these two indicators. Results The winter temperature in China showed a clear upward trend. The mean minimum air temperature and the mean air temperature in January increased by 1.3 ℃ and 0.9 ℃ respectively over the two periods before and after 1986, with the lowest average temperature of -4 ℃ and the average temperature of 0 ℃ in January The contour moves north 1 ~ 2 latitudes. Conclusion The warmer winter temperatures are favorable for the snail to wintering. The warming and the “South-to-North Water Diversion Project” have increased the possibility of snail spreading to the north and should be strengthened.