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自人民币汇率形成机制以来,中国进出口贸易出现较大波动。本文根据2005年7月至2008年10月的统计数据,运用周期波动特征分析方法,研究了中国十大进出口国别(地区)贸易的周期波动性。结果显示:中国对印度、俄罗斯、韩国和欧盟进、出口贸易的波动性较大,对日本、美国、中国香港和中国台湾地区的进、出口贸易波动性较小。另外,出口总量周期波动的原因主要来自对中国香港、日本和美国的出口波动;进口总量周期波动的原因主要来自对日本和韩国的进口波动。
Since the formation of the RMB exchange rate mechanism, China’s import and export trade fluctuations. Based on the statistical data from July 2005 to October 2008, this paper studies the cyclical volatility of China’s top ten import and export countries (regions) trade by using the method of cyclical fluctuation analysis. The results show that: China’s import and export trade with India, Russia, South Korea and the EU is volatile, and its import and export trade with Japan, the United States, Hong Kong, China and Taiwan is less volatile. In addition, the reasons for the fluctuations in the total export volume mainly come from the export fluctuations to China, Hong Kong, Japan and the United States. The reasons for the cyclical fluctuations in the total import volume mainly come from the fluctuations in imports to Japan and South Korea.