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1995年以来,大陆的消费、固定资产投资及存货增额、私人的货币资产的增长率均趋于下降,而实际 GDP 的增长率则从1994年就已经开始逐步下滑。其中尤为引人注目的是价格水平的下滑,1998年社会商品零售物价指数(RPl)的同比增长率为-2.6%,而消费品价格指数(CPI)同比增长率为-0.8%。到1999年,价格总水平下跌速度渐趋放慢并保持在一个很窄的空间之内。在价格出现萎缩的同时,信贷和总需求也持续疲软。引起经济波动的根源到底是来自于供给面的冲击,还是来自于需求面的冲击?本文试图对这些问题做一个简单的讨论。
Since 1995, the growth rate of consumption, fixed asset investment, inventory growth and private monetary assets in the Mainland has been on the decline. However, the real GDP growth rate has been gradually declining since 1994. Of particular note is the decline in price levels. The 1998 RPI rose -2.6% YoY, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew -0.8% YoY. By 1999, the drop in the general price level has gradually slowed down and remained within a very narrow space. As prices have shrunk, credit and aggregate demand have also continued to weaken. The root cause of economic fluctuations in the end come from the supply side impact, or from the impact of the demand side? This article attempts to make a simple discussion of these issues.