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正确的预测我国二○○○年矿产的资源和储量,是一个至关重要的、复杂的问题。一方而它是制定到二十世纪末和二十一世纪时国家发展政策的依据之一;另一方面也是一个牵涉地质和经济的问题。由于我国未来学的研究才开始,地质矿产方面的预测工作也开展不久,研究成果不多,特别是定量方面更少,有的也仅是大致估计数。世界上七十年代的非金属矿的产量和消费量以较高的速度增长。据美国《矿物年鉴》资料,1965年到1975年非金属矿的年平均增长率为4.5％,而同期金属矿产品平均年增长率为2.6％,其中美国七十年代非金属矿产消费量平均增长率为5.6％,而金属矿产消费量增长率为1.6％,到1978年,非金属原料产值达128亿美元,超过金属原料产值69亿美元的一倍。八
Correctly forecasting the mineral resources and reserves of our country in 2000 is a crucial and complex issue. On the one hand, it is one of the bases for formulating national development policies by the end of the twentieth century and the twenty-first century; on the other hand, it is also a matter involving geology and economy. Since the study of futurology in our country started its research, the prediction of geology and mineral resources has also been carried out shortly. There are not many achievements in the research, especially the quantitative aspects are fewer, and some are only approximate estimates. The production and consumption of non-metallic ores in the 1970s increased at a relatively high rate. According to the “Yearbook of Minerals” in the United States, the average annual growth rate of non-metallic mines from 1965 to 1975 was 4.5%, while the average annual growth rate of metal mines was 2.6%, of which the average growth of non-metallic mineral consumption in the United States in the 1970s The rate of increase of metal mineral consumption was 1.6%. By 1978, the output value of non-metallic raw materials reached 12.8 billion U.S. dollars, more than double the output value of metal raw materials of 6.9 billion U.S. dollars. Eight