论文部分内容阅读
传染病的疫情预测是对传染病的流行情况及其可能出现的变化所作的事前的推论和判断。根据传染病流行过程的客观规律性、影响因素和条件为依据,科学地预见某些传染病在一定地区和时间是否出现流行及流行的速度、规模,以便有计划地采取预防措施,控制流行,减少发病与死亡。国内外在这方面进行了广泛的研究,并已应用病原分离、分型、血清测定、数学模型等进行预测。根据部队的特点和实际情况,目前还不能广泛运用上述技术。因此,从流行病学基本理论进行疫情预测将是一种可行的简便方法。
Epidemics of infectious diseases Predict prejudices and judgments about the prevalence of infectious diseases and their possible changes. According to the objective laws, influencing factors and conditions of the epidemic of infectious diseases, we can scientifically predict the prevalence and prevalence of some infectious diseases in a certain area and time so that we can take preventive measures in a planned way and control the prevalence of infectious diseases. Reduce morbidity and mortality. At home and abroad in this area conducted a wide range of research, and has applied pathogen isolation, typing, serum determination, mathematical models and other forecasts. According to the characteristics of the troops and the actual situation, the above technologies can not be widely used at present. Therefore, epidemiological prediction from the basic theory of epidemiology will be a feasible and easy method.