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运用协同理论对我国乳业产业系统的发展机制进行剖析,同时选取12个状态指标,利用2006—2015年数据,通过建立系统协同度评价模型进行分析评价各子系统及系统的协同水平。结果表明:当前我国乳业产业系统整体协同度仍处于较低水平,但系统协同度增长趋势明显,自2006—2011年,系统协同度增速整体水平略高,而2012—2015年系统协同度增长速率下降至较低水平,整体而言,系统协同度水平的发展与我国宏观经济水平发展步调相似,系统于2012年节点处失稳,并向更高级有序的结构状态演化发展,我国宏观经济处于产业结构转型中,乳业产业系统处于远离平衡并不断靠近系统突变的零界位置的中期阶段;此外,我国乳业产业系统子系统间协调效果整体较差,但近年来子系统间协调水平具有上升趋势,而子系统间的有序度发展虽一度得到提高,但各子系统有序水平不一,且其子系统间有序度差距呈现扩大趋势。基于此,提出相关建议以促进我国乳业产业结构实现顺利升级。
Using the synergetic theory to analyze the development mechanism of China’s dairy industry system, 12 state indicators were selected at the same time, and the data of 2006-2015 were used to analyze and evaluate the synergy level of each subsystem and system by establishing the evaluation model of system coordination degree. The results show that at present the overall synergy degree of dairy industry system in our country is still at a low level, but the synergetic trend of synergetic growth is obvious. From 2006 to 2011, the overall synergetic growth rate of the system is slightly higher, while the growth of synergies between 2012 and 2015 As a whole, the level of system coordination is similar to that of macroeconomic development in our country. The system instability at the node in 2012 and evolves to a higher order and orderly structure. The macroeconomic In the process of industrial restructuring, the dairy industry system is in the mid-term stage of being far away from the equilibrium and constantly approaching the zero-crossing position of the system mutation. In addition, the overall coordination effect among the dairy industry sub-systems in China is overall poor, but the coordination level among the subsystems has risen in recent years Although the degree of orderliness between subsystems has been improved for the first time, the orderliness of subsystems is different, and the difference of degree of order between subsystems is expanding. Based on this, put forward relevant proposals to promote the smooth upgrading of China’s dairy industry structure.