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多数研究者都认为这次低油价不是偶然的,而是供应明显大于需求的市场形势积累的必然。他以“腰斩”之势已持续了两年多,带来了国际石油市场上的大动荡。与世界经济形势走向相应,到目前为止供需形势并没有重大改变,需求增速低迷而产量仍不断增加。换言之,形成低油价的基本条件仍没有改变。笔者预计:短期(如2020年前)以不变美元计年均油价将在50美元/桶上下,石油工业(特别是上游)仍将处于“寒冬”;中期(如2025年前后)以不变美元计年均油价将在60美元/桶上下;中长期年均油价80美元/桶以上将成为低概率事件。
Most researchers think this low oil price is not accidental, but an inevitable result of the accumulation of a market situation that is obviously larger than demand. His “rip off” trend has lasted more than two years, bringing about major turmoil in the international oil market. Corresponding to the trend of the world economy, the supply and demand situation so far has not changed significantly. The demand growth is still sluggish and output is still on the rise. In other words, the basic conditions for a low oil price have not changed. The author predicts that oil prices will remain at “cold winter” for a short period of time (eg, before 2020) at an average annual oil price of US $ 50 / barrel in a constant dollar, and the oil industry (especially the upper reaches) will remain in the “cold winter” Unchanged dollar average annual oil price will be 60 US dollars / barrel up and down; long-term average annual oil price of 80 US dollars / barrel will become a low probability event.