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今年初以来,西方经济中 出现的一些重要趋势引起了各 国官方和经济学家们的关注。 第一,西方经济发展正 从“速度型”转向“质量效益型” 今年西方经济增长速度放 慢主要是一些国家调整政策造成的。美国国民生产总值占西方国家总产值的1/3以上,去年美国经济增长4.1％,带动了西方经济的较快发展。为防止经济过热引起通货膨胀死灰复燃,从去年2月到今年2月,美国中央银行相继7次调高利率,抑制了投资和消费,经济逐步降温。按年率计算今年第一季度美国经济增长率从去年第四季度的5.1％降至2.7％,第二季度还要低,从而导致西方经济增长率有所下降。为刺激经济,美国中央银行7月6日宣布降低利率,很多经济学家预计,下半年美国经济将逐步回升,西方经济前景仍然良好。 第二,金融市场投机活动猖獗和风险增大 近两年来,美国经济总体形势好于日本和德国,但美元对日元和德国马克的比价不仅没有回升,反而节节下跌。从今年年初到4月18日,美元对日元和德
Since the beginning of this year, some important trends in the western economy have drawn the attention of officials and economists from various countries. First, the development of the western economy is shifting from “speed-type” to “quality-benefit.” The slowdown in the growth of the western economy this year is mainly caused by the adjustment policies of some countries. The U.S. gross national product accounts for more than one third of the total output value of the western countries. Last year, the U.S. economy grew by 4.1%, driving the rapid economic development in the West. To prevent overheating caused by the resurgence of inflation, from February last February to February this year, the U.S. Central Bank successively raised interest rates seven times, curbing investment and consumption, and gradually cooling down the economy. On a yearly basis, the U.S. economic growth rate dropped to 2.7% in the first quarter of this year from 5.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, and even lower in the second quarter, resulting in a drop in the economic growth rate in the West. To stimulate the economy, the Central Bank of the United States announced the reduction of interest rates on July 6, and many economists expect that in the second half of the year, the U.S. economy will gradually rise and the western economic outlook remains good. Second, the speculative activities in the financial market are rampant and risky In the past two years, the overall economic situation in the United States has been better than in Japan and Germany. However, the ratio of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen and the German mark not only failed to rise but was steadily declining. From the beginning of this year until April 18, the dollar against the Japanese yen and Germany